Hungary prepares to vote as Orban’s future hangs in balance

BUDAPEST - EU member Hungary will hold a closely watched general election on April 12, the first since nationalist Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s return to power in 2010 where he is not considered the clear favourite.

Surveys from independent pollsters suggest that opposition leader Peter Magyar’s conservative TISZA party could be heading for a landslide victory. Pro-government institutions however forecast a win for Mr Orban’s Fidesz-KDNP coalition.

Analysts expect a record turnout of around 75 to 80 per cent.

In the lead up to the April 12 vote, there has been a flurry of accusations and counter-accusations.

Domestic intelligence was accused of trying to sabotage TISZA, leaked phone conversations caused alarm about the foreign minister’s close relations with Moscow, and Mr Orban ramped up his rhetoric against Ukraine.

Allegations of Russian interference and mass vote buying efforts have also surfaced.

On April 5, after Mr Orban called an emergency meeting following Serbia’s announcement they had found explosives near a gas pipeline to Hungary, Mr Magyar suggested it might be a “false flag” operation.

The election is drawing international attention because Mr Orban has a “disproportionate importance” globally, said Professor Jacques Rupnik, a specialist in central and eastern European politics at the Sciences Po university in Paris.

The nationalist – who is close to Russia, China and the United States under President Donald Trump – has regularly paralysed EU foreign policymaking by wielding Hungary’s veto power.

His re-election bid has been endorsed by fellow right-wing leaders from around the globe, including Mr Trump.

US Vice-President J.D. Vance is set to visit Budapest on April 7 and hold a rally with Mr Orban.

For foreign observers, said Prof Rupnik, the main issue is whether Hungary continues to be “lenient” towards Russia under Mr Orban or with the election of Mr Magyar moves “to re-establish relations with the European Union”.

Campaign

While Mr Orban’s popularity has waned during his latest four-year term amid economic stagnation and high-profile scandals, he is presenting himself as the “safe choice” in a turbulent world.

His messaging has focused on neighbouring Ukraine, accusing Mr Magyar of being puppet of Kyiv and the European Union, which he argues threatens to involve Hungary in the war.

Analysts argue however that, unlike previous elections, the governing coalition has not been able to dictate the campaign’s priorities.

Instead, they “face a highly effective opposition that forced the complacent ruling party and its leader not only to compete but also to defend themselves”, political analyst Peter Farkas Zarug told AFP.

Mr Magyar has pledged a “system change” – cracking down on corruption, fixing public services and rebuilding democratic institutions.

He chose “Now or never” as his campaign slogan – a historic rallying cry of Hungarian revolutionaries.

The 45-year-old former government insider has been criss-crossing Hungary continuously since mid-February, holding four to six rallies a day.

The 62-year-old premier, meanwhile, did just one or two public gatherings per day from mid-March, and was recently met with audible boos from protesters.

Just five parties

On April 12, Hungarians will vote for local candidates and parties.

Only five parties will be listed – the fewest since Hungary’s democratisation in 1990 – after several stood down to bolster the opposition.

In addition to the two big blocs, the far-right Our Homeland party is also anticipated to win seats in the 199-member National Assembly.

Many voters in Budapest told AFP they had already made up their minds.

Mr Mate Dobai, a 35-year-old IT engineer, said he was satisfied with Mr Orban’s policies.

“I commend his pro-peace position in Ukraine, because I find the war pointless,” he said. “People are dying and the front line is stagnant.”

Ms Andrea Simon, a 57-year-old florist said she planned to vote for TISZA, displeased with Mr Orban’s tenure.

“I’m a business owner. Taxes and contributions are increasing month-by-month, and I have hardly any customers, because people are getting poorer even in this affluent town,” she said.

Concerns

Mr Orban’s critics have accused him of tweaking electoral law and leveraging state resources to help his party’s campaign.

A documentary published in March alleged the ruling coalition planned to pressure about 500,000 of Hungary’s most impoverished people to vote for them.

Non-governmental organisations also raised the alarm about the possible manipulation of mail-in ballots by Hungarians living abroad, which are collected by Fidesz-allied parties in Romania and Serbia.

The Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has, for the second time in a row, deployed a full observers’ mission for Hungary’s general election.

But the OSCE has faced criticism for giving Russian President Vladimir Putin’s former interpreter a coordinating role in the mission. AFP